Playoff Four Thread posted December 4, 2016 at 1:59 PM
Discussion Person

TopJTimm

Macon, GA

Fanatic

Much like my Heisman thread, here's where I'll post my Playoff Four each week since the committee's first rankings come out this week!

1. Alabama

2. Clemson

3. Michigan

4. Washington

Alabama vs. Washington in Chick-fil-A, Clemson vs. Michigan in Fiesta. 

Discussion Person

dcomitch

Charleston, SC

Fanatic

That's where I think it will be too.  Possible to see Michigan at 2 and Clemson at 3, but I think your list is right.  Doesn't really matter to me if we're 2 or 3.  We'll be one of those two. 

Discussion Person

TopJTimm

Macon, GA

Fanatic

Exactly. Being 2 or 3 in this situation doesn't matter. Just changes what jersey you'd wear for the Fiesta Bowl, maybe.

 

Discussion Person

John_M-01

Houston, TX

Fanatic

Here are the first official rankings of the 2016 season...

 

 

TOP 4:

01- Alabama
02- Clemson
03- Michigan
04- Texas A&M

 

 

FIRST 2 OUT:
05- Washington
06- Ohio State

 

Those AP Polls don't mean anything anymore. We now have learned who the four best NCAA FBS teams are at present. We also know what teams are good... but not good enough to be among the Top 4. Remember- you don't need to be atop the rankings, but you want to be among the four best so you can play to become #1.

 

So, Fans25... what do you think about these rankings?

Discussion Person

TopJTimm

Macon, GA

Fanatic

I think it's crap that TAMU is ranked ahead of Washington. Now, it could be that the committee would give Washington the edge once they complete an undefeated conference championship season, but I'm still not a fan of that.

Discussion Person

matkillah

Greenwood, SC

Fanatic

Yeah Timm I think it's crap that 8-0 Washington is outside looking in right now and TAMU at 7-1 is in the top 4. I guess it's true you can have a good loss???? No doubt you would think they would have to give Washington the edge if they complete an undefeated season. I do like where they placed Louisville though, it seems right to me. They are a good team, but the loss to Clemson and having to pull out wins against 3-3 Duke and 2-5 UVA at the end of the 4th quarter should come into play and I believe it has.

Discussion Person

Dasyboja

Industry, PA

Fanatic

Washington's YTDSOS (year to date strength of schedule) is only worse than three others in the initial top 25 rankings for CFP.

so sitting at 5 is not bad.  i think the need to worry more about ohio state beating michigan than TXA&M hanging around at 4.

win out and win the pac 12 should be enough over a one loss team even in a pac12 percieved down year.

 

Discussion Person

John_M-01

Houston, TX

Fanatic

You know, I actually sort of thought Ohio State would be at the #4 slot.  Then too, I also had Washington maybe take the 4th spot.  ...but so did a lot of other college football fans.  I respect Texas A&M and all, but I felt Washington got hosed.  This is the first playoff rankings after all.  Maybe this will get Washington to play harder and make them tell the CFP committee to shove it.  They'll certainly be in the mix should Texas A&M and Ohio State fall apart.  Or maybe also if any of the other Top 4 members start losing their touch.  The 2016 Washington Huskies still deserve a lot of love.  The one thing I would hate to see is if the 2016 Washington Huskies get treated like the 1991 Washington Huskies- having to share being the best team with some other (shared with Miami (FL) that season).

Discussion Person

BigK3

Rome, GA

Fanatic

Texas A&M is in the #4 spot to protect the SEC. If Alabama falls they will probably fall out of the Top 4 and Texas A&M will be in there to fill the vacancy. Is it fair to Washington to be left out at this point? No, but if they win out the CFP playoff committee cannot leave them out. 

 

Washington YTDSOS is worse than Texas A&M, but they have pretty much dominated that schedule too, so to me that should count for something. the two toughest teams they've faced are Stanford, a major blowout, and Utah, a hard  fought road victory, are quality wins in my opinion.

 

Texas A&M beat Auburn. That's the only quality win they really have, maybe Arkansas, but with the recent collapse of Arkansas and Tennessee Texas A&M's YTDSOS really isn't all that impressive to me.

Discussion Person

HuskerChamp1

Omaha, NE

Fanatic

I do not understand how you put A&M over Washington. I hate that, hate it hate it hate it. 

Discussion Person

Throw-Them-BoNes

Las Vegas, NV

Just because A&M played Bama tough for a little bit they get the edge over Browning and Wash?  lol what a joke, not too mention two members on that committee have "strong dislike" towards the Wash. program in general.

But whatever IF the Huskers take care of business we are right back up there and in the discussion. Can Nebraska beat Bama, Mich or even Clemson??  Idk.... that is why the play the game, any given day with College Football.

GBR!!!!

Discussion Person

Dasyboja

Industry, PA

Fanatic

texas a&m has .537 average YTDSOS left on their schedule

washington has .672 average YTDSOS left on their schedule (not including PAC12 championship game).

both winning out on those schedules and considering TAMs 1 loss should move UW up into the final 4.

no undefeated team from the pac12 should ever be left out of the final 4... unless all super 5 each has an undefeated after CCGs are complete. then there would be great debate.

Discussion Person

SpiffyGuitarMan

Birmingham, AL

Fans25 Staff

Fanatic

I've thought since the beginning that having these rankings come out early only serves to undermine the credibility of the committee.  Now it's clear, though, that the NCAA is more than willing to sacrifice credibility for some extra dollars.  The time spent to dissect the committee's choices, the tv show, the constant radio and message board chatter keeps this at the forefront of the discussion.  And we're all playing right into their hands lol.

Discussion Person

John_M-01

Houston, TX

Fanatic

I'd like to see the committee shaft Washington NOW after Texas A&M's fail at Mississippi State.  There may be a chance a new name may creep up in the College Football Playoff rankings.  TAMU is pretty much done in the Playoff.  Outside of the Top 6 is Louisville.  They might sneak in as part of the "First 2 Out."  Alabama, Clemson, and Michigan should be safe.  So I'm thinking this as the Top 4 come this Tuesday: Alabama, Clemson, Michigan, and Washington.

Discussion Person

TopJTimm

Macon, GA

Fanatic

My four remains unchanged

1. Bama

2. Clemson

3. Michigan

4. Washington

That said, I totally expect Clemson or Michigan to be No. 1 this week so they can stir up the conversation.

Discussion Person

John_M-01

Houston, TX

Fanatic

Honest truth- I forgot all about the College Football Playoff tonight! Latest rankings:


--- Top 4, Nov. 8, 2016 ---
01: Alabama
02: Michigan
03: Clemson
04: Washington

 


--- First 2 Out, Nov. 8, 2016 ---
05: Ohio State
06: Louisville 

 

I typed up all of this as I was *trying* not to get indulged into the whole Election Day business. But anyhow, there's your latest CFP rankings. Share some thoughts if you like.

Discussion Person

John_M-01

Houston, TX

Fanatic

With fails by Clemson, Michigan, and Washington; it will be interesting to see who will fill out the Top 4 and who the First 2 Out will be.  Alabama had no problem with their easy win.

Discussion Person

TopJTimm

Macon, GA

Fanatic

What an interesting scenario!

Prior to Saturday, there was such a gap between the top 6 or so and everyone else, that losses by 2, 3 and 4 don't really shake things up that much. In fact, while I have Ohio State at No. 2, Michigan losing MIGHT have cost them a spot in the playoffs entirely. So weird!

1. Bama

2. Ohio State

3. Louisville

4. Clemson

Discussion Person

lungbuster

Shelby, NC

What this did was reopen the door for Louisville.  As long as Clemson wins out, they're in.  As long as the winner of Ohio State and Michigan win out, they're in.  Unfortunately, I believe Washington will get the short end of the stick because Louisville's only loss was vs a top 4-5 team on the road.  Washington still has to beat Washington State just to win the PAC-12. 

Discussion Person

TopJTimm

Macon, GA

Fanatic

If Washington wins out, I think they're in too. The committee has shown a leaning toward championships.

Discussion Person

TheTopFan

Greenville, SC

Fans25 Staff

Fanatic

Lung - Do you think the Gamecocks have a shot at the upset on Clemson now that Bentley is QB?

Discussion Person

John_M-01

Houston, TX

Fanatic

Time to determine the latest College Football Playoff rankings. The latest rankings are as follows:

 


--- Top 4: Nov. 15, 2016 ---
1: Alabama
2: Ohio State
3: Michigan
4: Clemson

 


--- First 2 Out: Nov. 15, 2016 ---
5: Louisville
6: Washington

 


So there you have it. Thoughts on this set of rankings are welcome now.

Discussion Person

TopJTimm

Macon, GA

Fanatic

I'm fine with it. The committee has repeatedly shown us that they use an "if the season ended today" model that doesn't include conference champions. What I mean is that if I say "if the season ended today," I assume Bama, Clemson and Washington as conference champions and I pick whichever of Ohio State and Michigan I think will win, for now. In my case, that's Ohio State.

The committee seemingly doesn't do that. That's how you got three SEC teams in the very first rankings and how you had TAMU in the first one this year even though they were essentially eliminated from the SEC title game. That's why they have Ohio State and Michigan both in the top three now.

As long as they continue their tradition of valuing conference championships once they're actually decided, this works for me.

Discussion Person

TheTopFan

Greenville, SC

Fans25 Staff

Fanatic

Wake, USC and VT

 

We should be fine, but you never know...Each of those games has a tricky element to it...

 

That said, if we win out, I like being in that #2 vs #3 game in the Georgia Dome...

 

 

Discussion Person

TopJTimm

Macon, GA

Fanatic

I don't think Clemson would be there. Unless something has changed, they put No. 1 closest to home, I thought.

Discussion Person

TheTopFan

Greenville, SC

Fans25 Staff

Fanatic

Is that how it works?

 

I thought Fiesta got #1 vs #4 and the Peach got #2 vs #3

 

Guess not....

Discussion Person

John_M-01

Houston, TX

Fanatic

Here is something I thought of... let's pretend Alabama loses in the SEC Championship game or in the Iron Bowl (Alabama vs. Auburn) and Washington wins the Pac-12 championship.  Would Washington be "in" the College Football Playoff in this scenario?  Another scenario... let's say Alabama loses at least one game, Washington fails to finish their season with one loss, and Western Michigan wins the MAC.  Is there ANY way Western Michigan joins the College Football Playoff picture, or would they get shafted from National Championship contention like the 2004 Utah Utes?

 

I was just thinking about scenarios involving the likes of Washington and (currently unbeaten) Western Michigan.

Discussion Person

SpiffyGuitarMan

Birmingham, AL

Fans25 Staff

Fanatic

Top, I think you're right about the locations, but if Bama is #1 in the final tally, then the 1-4 matchup would be closest to them....which is the Georgia Dome.  There's always the chance we win the SEC with a loss, though, and Bama and Clemson might both be in Atlanta :)

Discussion Person

BigK3

Rome, GA

Fanatic

Without a PSU implosion, Ohio State can not reach the Big10 title game, so to me they can't be in the CFP if a conference championship is that important. So for the Committee to have them number 2 blows my mind and the fact that Michigan loses to an unranked team and doesn't fall at all blows my mind as well. That being said, based on the losses and conference championships it is hard to say who would be where. 

 

Alabama is #1 hands down. Clemson, Washington, Michigan could be 1 loss Conference Champions which would fill out the top 4, but in what order?

 

What if:

Alabama loses to Auburn or in the SEC Championship (Most Likely Florida)

Ohio State beats Michigan and Penn State Wins out and loses to Wisconsin in Big 10 title

Washington loses to Washington State and USC beats WSU in PAC12 Championship

West Virginia wins out

Western Michigan wins out

Clemson wins out and loses to VT in ACC Championship Game

Louisville wins out

 

Is the CFP:

West Virginia, USC, Wisconsin and Western Michigan?

West Virginia, Alabama, Wisconsin, and Louisville?

Ohio State, West Virginia, Louisville, USC?

Florida, West Virginia, USC, Wisconsin?

Or some other weird combination?

Discussion Person

GO UTES!!

Salt Lake City, UT

Fanatic

John, I don't see Western Michigan getting high enough to make the Playoff. They would get shafted like Utah in 2004 (and 2008).

 

BigK3, USC is on the outside looking in on the Pac-12 Championship right now. If Utah and Colorado both win this week, they are eliminated. Both Colorado and Utah need to lose again to allow USC a chance into that. Colorado could theoretically make the Playoff with its final (potential) three games coming against (probably) ranked teams. The Buffaloes play Washington State this week, Utah next week and either Wazzu or Washington in the championship.

 

Utah has an outside chance to get in also, but it would take some more chaos like last weekend. Utah plays Oregon this week, ranked Colorado next week and if the Utes win both of those, they will be in the Pac Championship against a ranked Wazzu or Washington.

 

USC would need even more chaos to get in. They have three losses, two of which are in conference play.

Discussion Person

John_M-01

Houston, TX

Fanatic

Let's look at the latest College Football Playoff rankings released earlier tonight. This is the latest Top 4 and First 2 Out:

 

--- Top 4: Nov. 22, 2016 ---

01: Alabama

02: Ohio State

03: Michigan

04: Clemson

 

--- First 2 Out: Nov. 22, 2016 ---

05: Washington

06: Wisconsin

 

 

Alright, folks. Time for you to rave or rant the latest rankings. So sound off!

Discussion Person

TopJTimm

Macon, GA

Fanatic

Mine is similar but just in a different order.

1. Bama

2. Clemson

3. Ohio State

4. Michigan

The committee better hope that Michigan wins on Saturday, or they have quite a decision to make. If Penn State and Ohio State both win, they may have to really choose between the eye test and conference championships.

Discussion Person

SpiffyGuitarMan

Birmingham, AL

Fans25 Staff

Fanatic

Timm, how about if Wisconsin beats Penn St for the Big Ten and Oklahoma wins the Big Twelve.  Does the committee take either of the 2-loss conference champs over a 1-loss OSU that didn't even play for a conference championship but beat them both head-to-head on the road?

Discussion Person

John_M-01

Houston, TX

Fanatic

All I know is that either Michigan or Ohio State will be done once they take each other on.  Only other areas of concern are in regards to what happens with Alabama and Clemson.  Then too, where could Washington and Wisconsin slot in?  And could somebody else join the College Football Playoff party?  The CFP committee is going to be REAL busy heading into this Tuesday.

Discussion Person

TopJTimm

Macon, GA

Fanatic

Yeah Spiffy that's a daggum mess. Not sure what they'd do.

Discussion Person

BigK3

Rome, GA

Fanatic

With the Michigan the playoff 4 seems fairly certain, but it is College football and anything can happen. For now it is:

1. Alabama

2. Ohio State

3. Clemson

4. Washington

 

Following next week I think the 4 should be as follows:

1. Alabama (if they beat Florida)

2. Clemson (if they beat Virginia Tech)

3. Washington (if they beat Colorado)

4. Big Ten Champion (Penn State or Wisconsin) or Oklahoma State (if they beat Oklahoma)

I don't think a team should make the playoff without winning their conference championship. The committee has always talked about how that is important and they punished TCU and Baylor a couple years ago because they were Co-Champions and not Champions.

 

It could become a mangled mess if the top teams go down and the Big Ten could be the benficiaries of it. Without Ohio State and Michigan possibly slipping back in if everyone loses.

Alabama (12-0) v. Florida (9-3)- Alabama wins, they're in

Clemson (11-1) v. Virginia Tech (9-3)- Clemson wins, they're in

Washington (11-1) v. Colorado (10-2)- Winner of this game should be in

Penn State (10-2) v. Wisconsin (10-2)- Winner of this game should be in

Oklahoma (9-2) v. Oklahoma State (9-2)- Winner of this game could be in if Alabama or Clemson falls

 

If Florida, Virginia Tech, and Oklahoma State win...

The final four could:

include 3 Big Ten teams, 2 at the least

Include 2 nonconference champions (Alabama, Ohio State)

Have a 2 loss team as the #1 seed

Have a nonconference champion as a #1 seed.

 

There will be controversy no matter the scenario, but it could get really interesting

Discussion Person

TopJTimm

Macon, GA

Fanatic

My four as of now:

1. Alabama

2. Clemson

3. Ohio State

4. Washington

I would have Penn State at No. 5, and if they win the Big 10, they'd get in and bump out OSU. I also believe this is how the committee will do it.

Discussion Person

BigK3

Rome, GA

Fanatic

ASJTimm, Do you feel Wisconsin bumps out OSU too if they win?

Discussion Person

TopJTimm

Macon, GA

Fanatic

No I don't. I think the committee will probably want Ohio State in anyway, and if Wisconsin wins, they'll use Ohio State's head-to-head win to give them the edge.

Discussion Person

BigK3

Rome, GA

Fanatic

I can see that and you might be right, but, too me, it wouldn't be fair to use that if they consider 'the entire body of work'

Wisconsin beat LSU, who may be at this point the 4th or 5th best team in the country.

Ohio State lost to Penn State

Penn State would've lost to Wisconsin.

Wisconsin's only losses would be to two 10 teams one of them on the road and one in OT. I think that is enough to allow them in, but the head to head may end up playing a big factor.

Discussion Person

TopJTimm

Macon, GA

Fanatic

Sorry, LSU isn't even one of the top 10 teams in the country right now. 

And I like the fact that the committee doesn't seem to focus on hypotheticals. I would prefer that the Big 10 champ get in over Ohio State, but I'd accept it if they used head-to-head to give OSU the spot.

Discussion Person

John_M-01

Houston, TX

Fanatic

What's good, all my Fans25 peoples? :) Let's update the College Football Playoff rankings one last time on a Tuesday. The next rankings will be the final rankings this Sunday. Here are the Playoff teams as of right now...


--- Top 4: Nov. 29, 2016 ---
01: Alabama
02: Ohio State
03: Clemson
04: Washington


--- First 2 Out: Nov. 29, 2016 ---
05: Michigan
06: Wisconsin


Remember- the Playoff will be set this Sunday. But for now, what do you make of these rankings?

Discussion Person

TopJTimm

Macon, GA

Fanatic

I'm a little surprised that both Michigan and Wisconsin are still ahead of Penn State, but I also wouldn't be shocked to see Penn State push Ohio State out with a win this weekend. I guess this also means Wisconsin could do the same.

Discussion Person

BigK3

Rome, GA

Fanatic

Does Colorado push out Washington with a win, or does Michigan or Ohio State get the four spot and Big10 have two teams in? It would cause a lot of controversy for non Big10 fans and Colorado fans. I think Colorado is a good team and their record could be better. Both losses, at Michigan (28-45 and at USC (17-21) came on the road without their starting QB, injuries are supposed to be considered in decisions by the committee.

Discussion Person

TopJTimm

Macon, GA

Fanatic

I think Colorado would need some help, even if they win. Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, Big 10 winner and Michigan would all be ahead of them in line, I'd guess, and Ohio State and Michigan aren't losing this weekend.

Discussion Person

SpiffyGuitarMan

Birmingham, AL

Fans25 Staff

Fanatic

Colorado has no chance unless the committee puts an insane amount of emphasis on conference championships.  Remember, they lost by 17 to Michigan in the regular season.  With all the fluidity in the Big Ten and the possible outcomes, the chances of Colorado getting in and Michigan not are worse than Oklahoma getting in while Ohio State gets snubbed. The PAC-12 is Washington or bust, but even they might not make it.  

That's what I think is so intriguing abotu the playoff committee this year.  It's not as clean and clear as it has been the last two years.  They'll have to make some hard decisions and will likely set some pretty firm precedents.  The question of head-to-head result vs. conference championship as a deciding tie-breaker, especially as it comes to out of conference comparisons, for example.  This is what the playoff committee has been building to, and I personally think that no matter what they do there will be an outcry to expand the playoff.

Discussion Person

TopJTimm

Macon, GA

Fanatic

What's interesting to me is that if Penn State wins the Big 10, they'd have both head-to-head AND the championship in their favor. Will be interesting to see if the committee ignores both of those and puts Ohio State in anyway. 

And the more I think about it, I'm not even convinced Bama is a lock if they lose, even though everyone keeps saying that. If that happens, and Clemson, Washington and Penn State all win, the committee COULD - not saying should or will - decide to leave Bama out to take the three conference champions and Ohio State.

Discussion Person

John_M-01

Houston, TX

Fanatic

Only four can play for the NCAA FBS National Championship. Which four, though? Meet your Playoff Four:

 

1: Alabama

2: Clemson

3: Ohio State

4: Washington

 

When New Year's Eve rolls around, these four teams will battle to play for the title. So Alabama vs. Washington will be one match, and the other will be Clemson vs. Ohio State. Get ready for two heavyweight fights come New Year's Eve!

You must be logged in to reply to this topic. Click click here to login or here to create an account.